How does one know if
"Hay un incidente ahí; tendrán que llamar a la policía."
should be translated as
1) There is an accident there; they MIGHT have to call the police (probability)
2) There is an accident there, they WILL have to call the police (statement of fact)
We are giving in the English translations "might" to convey the probability of that happening in the future. If we give straight away the future in the English it is pretty much giving it away. This way the student needs to associate the "probability" with the future tense in Spanish.
Hope this helps,
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